After an extended warm and dry period through December and some of January, winter arrived this week with a little sow and a lot of cold. It has been interesting reading various science and pseudo-science organizations try to explain the winter this year. In the fall, the prospect of a La Nina winter caused most forecasts to suggest a cold winter particularly in western north America. Which largely hasn’t happened – although winter isn’t over.
Increasingly, people look to the significant change in the Arctic oscillation to explain the different behavior tis winter.
It is also interesting to note the near record minimum extent of Arctic sea ice and the minimum volume of Arctic sea ice. It has been slow to re-freeze and thicken -especially on the Russian side of the pole.
It is perhaps not surprising there have been difficulties forecasting this winter. Given the highly anomalous sea ice patterns, we haven’t seen anything like this combination before. Our atmospheric and oceanographic models have never been tested against such a low ice cover. This winter might be providing a good case study – perhaps we will learn more about some processes that will improve forecasts in the future.
